INFLATION IS THE ENEMY OF SIMPLICITY

Let us not kid ourselves – inflation is a global problem which means that wherever you trade and with whomever you trade there are some serious complications – the very thing that Time To Exit has been warning against.

The BBC has been reporting this growing problem for a while using such headlines as:-

RECORD INFLATION: Five ways Argentines try to cope

BUYING BANKNOTES to survive Zimbabwe’s sky-high inflation

SRI LANKA secures bailout for struggling economy

WHY EGYPTIANS are being asked to eat chicken feet

NIGERIA cost-of-living crisis sparks exodus of doctors

Those are just a few of the headlines courtesy of the BBC and there are countless more including British inflation which is running higher than that in Germany and the USA.

The International Monetary Fund is bailing out countries with serious problems while at the same time, countries are borrowing off other countries. As an example, Beijing’s lending to Sri Lanka stands at around $7bn (£5.71bn) while India is owed around $1bn (£820m).

What does this all mean?

Quite simply it means that the world economy is shattered. If everyone reneges on their debts because they just cannot pay back the vast amounts they owe there will be a financial earthquake like never before, not even like the slump of the 1920s.

This has been a growing likelihood for some time and all the more reason for every business owner in the UK to take a serious look at his company’s performance, income, cost and direction right now rather than wait until the turbulence is already tossing everyone about.

The Time To Exit Methodology System has been created to enable an overall picture leading to a strategy plan to safeguard the company’s future, primarily to stablize or increase is value but equally it can help to protect as much as possible from the difficult times ahead.

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WHAT THE MEDIA IS SAYING

GB NEWS

Britons face a stark mortgage warning as Sir Keir Starmer’s Government edges dangerously close to requiring Bank of England support amid worsening economic conditions.

Official statistics show Britain’s finances are in deep trouble, with public debt reaching 96.4 per cent of GDP — significantly worse than 61.2 per cent in 1976 when Britain required IMF support.

Economic growth has slowed to 1.2 per cent, and the deficit currently stands at 5.1 per cent, both underlining economic weaknesses greater than Britain experienced under Labour Prime Minister James Callaghan.

Borrowing costs for the Government have skyrocketed, with ten-year gilt yields at 4.6 per cent and thirty-year gilts at 5.5 per cent.

REUTERS

Britain’s economy contracted unexpectedly for a second month running in May, official data showed on Friday, compounding worries at home for finance minister Rachel Reeves as the nation navigates growing global turbulence.

Gross domestic product shrank by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in April, the Office for National Statistics said.

Following a growth surge early in the year, Britain’s economy could now be facing flat or weaker growth than previously expected for the April-to-June period, economists said.

Recent data now adds to expectations the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

“The lack of momentum in the UK economy indicated by these sluggish figures means that an August interest rate cut currently looks inevitable, despite the recent spike in inflation,” said Suren Thiru, economics director at accountancy body ICAEW.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government has struggled to improve growth meaningfully in its first year, with a tax hike on employers and U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars weighing on the economy.

Economists say it looks increasingly likely Reeves will need to raise taxes again in her next budget – something she had hoped to avoid.

“While today’s figures are disappointing, I am determined to kickstart economic growth,” Reeves said of Friday’s data.

Britain’s economy expanded rapidly in the first quarter of 2025, outstripping growth in other countries in the Group of Seven advanced economies. In May the Bank of England revised up its full-year growth forecast to 1%.

BBC NEWS

The Bank of England is prepared to make larger interest rate cuts if the job market shows signs of slowing down, its governor has said.

In an interview with the Times, Andrew Bailey said “I really do believe the path is downward” on interest rates.

Interest rates currently stand at 4.25% and will be reviewed at the Bank’s next meeting on 7 August, when many economists expect the rate will be cut.

They affect mortgage, credit card and savings rates for millions of people. Speaking to the Times, Mr Bailey said, “I think the path (fr interest rates) is down. But we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’ because some people say to me, ‘why are you cutting when inflation’s above target?’”

He said the UK’s economy was growing behind its potential, opening up “slack” that would help to bring down inflation.

Slack refers to the amount of unused resources in an economy, such as working factories that are not producing anything or people who cannot find a job.

“If we saw the slack opening up much more quickly, that would lead us to a different conclusion,” he said.

SKY NEWS

Lenders to the petrol forecourts arm of the ailing group behind the Prax Lindsey oil refinery have drafted in City advisers ahead of the business being put up for sale.

Sky News has learnt that AlixPartners, the professional services firm, has been engaged by a syndicate of funds which are owed more than £200m by Prax Group’s retail operations.

The unit trades from more than 200 sites across the UK, according to the company’s website, with reports at the weekend suggesting that some sites are facing fuel shortages because of supply agreements that they have with the group’s refinery in Lincolnshire.

The refinery collapsed into compulsory liquidation and is now being run by restructuring experts at FTI Consulting on behalf of the Official Receiver.

The plant – one of only a handful of oil refineries still operating in the UK – supplies roughly 10% of the UK’s fuel.

Last week, Sky News revealed that the Official Receiver had set prospective buyers of Prax Lindsey a two-week deadline to buy the site, although many in the industry expect it to be wound down rather than sold.

The petrol forecourts arm – which is not itself in administration – is likely to draw interest from industry peers.

Ministers have ordered an Insolvency Service probe into the conduct of the husband-and-wife team behind State Oil, parent company of the Prax Group, alleging they were misled about the company’s finances in the build-up to its insolvency.

The group is reported to owe the UK tax authorities in the region of £250m, with insiders saying that Sanjeev Kumar Soosaipillai and his wife Arani had been in talks about a Time to Pay arrangement with HM Revenue & Customs prior to State Oil’s collapse.

MIRROR

Thousands of people could see their working week cut back to just four instead of five days after a huge trial was declared a complete success. The latest test of the working pattern saw 17 companies allow 1,000 employees to work just four days a week, without losing any pay.

And as the trial ended, all 17 said they would continue the system – and encourage others to do the same. The five-day, 40-hour work week became standard in many countries during the early 20th century, thanks in part to campaigns by labour unions and legislation.

But economists have long said better conditions and increased automation would allow people to strike a better work-life balance. The latest national four-day working week pilot, involving 17 companies and nearly 1,000 workers, has ended with a 100% success rate.

The six-month trial began last November and was organised by the 4 Day Week Foundation. Organisations were able to maintain service levels and key performance indicators whilst observing several benefits for employee well-being, said the report.

Almost two-thirds of workers registered a reduction in how often they experienced burnout, two in five found an improvement in their mental health and almost half said they felt more satisfied with life. Joe Ryle, campaign director of the 4 Day Week Foundation, said: “With greater knowledge, expertise and experience of what it takes to successfully implement a four-day week, we’re really pleased to see such a high success rate.

People are happier, businesses are thriving, and there’s no turning back. We’ve proved it again and again: a four-day week works and should now be implemented more widely across the economy.”

Alan Brunt, chief executive of Bron Afon Community Housing with 420 staff, who are extending their pilot further, said: “Almost as soon as we started talking about it, our teams got together to set about making it work which was brilliant.

We’ve closely monitored our performance and customer satisfaction. We’re happy with the results so far and will continue to make sure we’re delivering for our customers. I expect that most organisations will be doing this in the next 10 years or so.”

More media news coming soon

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AMERICAN$ BUY INTO UK $UCCE$$ $TORIE$

Overseas investment in British businesses continues to grow when it seemed that we had reached saturation level. Surely that is a good thing. Well, that depends upon how you look at it.

The latest involves one of the most successful UK tech firms in that Alphawave has agreed a deal to be taken over by equally successful US company Qualcomm for around £1.8 million.

Alphawave’s success story is an object lesson in that it has grown in both size and status at an incredible rate since it was founded in 2017. Its website reveals:

Founded in 2017, and profitable since 2018, Alphawave Semi has a world-class track record delivered by our experienced founding management team, supplying global Tier-One customers.

Our leading-edge technology advances push the boundaries of wired connectivity capabilities, enabling data to travel faster, more reliably, and using lower power.

Powering next generation technologies, we serve Tier-One customers in North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and the UK. Our innovative solutions have repeatedly set industry benchmarks in terms of performance, power consumption, size, and flexibility.’

The American ethos is often, ‘if you can’t beat it – buy it’ and that is what has happened.

Shareholders in the UK firm, which designs semiconductors attractive artificial intelligence (AI) development, will receive 183p per share under the terms agreed..

That’s a pretty good return.

The question is what will be the future for Alphawave and its employees? When a company is sold, its control and decision-making switches to the new owner. Will the company continue to prosper or will it be Quantum simply removing a thorn in its side? A removed thorn is generally discarded. Only time will tell.

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EUROSTAR TO GO FURTHER AND FASTER

There was a time when a train trip from London to Brighton was exciting but that almost pales into insignificance as Eurostar has announced its plans to open up new services from London to Geneva and Frankfurt early in the next decade.

Eurostar is investing £1.7 billion (2 billion euros) in buying 50 new trains which will probably start their careers around 2030.

Gwendoline Cazenave, CEO of Eurostar revealed, “We’re seeing strong demand for train travel across Europe, with customers wanting to go further by rail than ever before and enjoy the unique experience we provide. Despite the challenging economic climate, Eurostar is growing and has bold ambitions for the future.

Our new fleet will make new destinations for customers a reality – notably direct trains between London and Germany, and between London and Switzerland for the first time. A new golden age of international sustainable travel is here.”

How quick will it be? Well, the Eurostar train can currently reach a top speed of 186 miles per hour on high-speed lines in the UK, France, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands. It has to slow down inside the Channel Tunnel where the maximum speed is 100 miles per hour. Of course, there are not so many roadworks on the railway system!

The new trains will bring the total Eurostar fleet to 67 trains – a 30% increase on the current fleet.

Eurostar also plan to add a fourth daily service between London, Rotterdam and Amsterdam from 9 September, followed by a fifth from mid-December.

This is good news for travellers of course but bad news for train spotters – can you imagine trying to get the details of a train travelling at close to 200 mph?!

 

DON’T LOOK NOW BUT THERE ARE TAX RISES CREEPING UP ON US…………

The fourth highest ever April figures for government borrowing seem to point to only one conclusion – tax rises in the Autumn. Since the year seems to be flying past it will not be long before we have even more business and personal financial implications to consider.

The budget speech at that time of the year usually takes place at the end of October or early November and contains a mixed bag of slaps and sweeteners. This year will probably be no different but the slaps might well be more stinging than the sweeteners can mask.

In April government borrowing to bridge the gap between spending and tax income was £20.2 bn. Which was £1bn more than the previous April and the fourth highest in the 32 years since these records began.

This is not new of course and it is quite common for government spending to outweigh tax income but at this time of particularly jittery global financial confidence some stern action needs to be seen to be taken.

Since April government spending does not seem to have decreased in any way with winter fuel payments being restored, government funding for other projects and acquisitions and continued general price rises, the deficit seems more than likely to grow.

It is amazing how ‘government’ funding or ‘government’ bail-out etc has become so much a part of our daily dialogue that we can easily forget that whichever government is in power, they hold the purse but the contents are actually provided by the taxpayer.

When the purse gets empty the government flogs a few more bonds to just about anyone who will buy them. The actual transaction means that the government gets the money and the buyer gets the bond which is for an agreed time after which they will get their money back plus interest. Thus the fund-raising is borrowing and not simply a garage sale.

To gain confidence -as well as more money – governments have to be seen to be taking some dramatic action, hence the tax rises.

Stand by for such tax rises this autumn – there is probably no better time than now for business owners and executives to tackle The Law of Diminishing Simplicity.

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